| Title | Associations of climate variability driven by El Ni?o-southern oscillation with excess mortality and related medical costs in Chinese elderly |
| Authors | Xu, Hongbing Zhuang, Castiel Chen Guan, Xinpeng He, Xinghou Wang, Tong Wu, Rongshan Zhang, Qinghong Huang, Wei |
| Affiliation | Peking Univ, Inst Environm Med, Dept Occupat & Environm Hlth, Sch Publ Hlth, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China Peking Univ, Sch Econ, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China Univ Washington, Dept Econ, Seattle, WA 98195 USA Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, State Environm Protect Key Lab Ecol Effect & Risk, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China Peking Univ, Sch Econ, 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China |
| Keywords | NINO DISEASES IMPACT POLICY |
| Issue Date | 10-Dec-2022 |
| Publisher | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT |
| Abstract | Climate variability driven by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a significant public health concern in parallel with global population aging; however, its role in healthy aging is less studied. We examined the longitudinal impacts of ENSO exposure on excess mortality and related medical costs in the elderly from 23 provinces of China. A total of 27,533 non-accidental all-cause deaths were recorded in 30,763 participants during 1998-2018. We found that both low and high levels of ENSO metrics over lags of 0-12 months were associated with increased mortality risks. Specifically, comparing the 10th percentile (-1.8) and 90th percentile (2.0) multivariate El Nino index (MEI) levels to the reference level with the minimum effect of MEI exposure, the risk of mortality was 1.87 (95 % confidence inter-val [CI], 1.75, 2.00) and 4.89 (95 % CI, 4.36, 5.49), respectively. ENSO exposure was also positively related to medical costs. Further, the associations were stronger among drinkers, lower-income participants, and those with higher blood pressure and heart rate measured at the most recent follow-ups. Our results suggested that ENSO exposure was capable of heightening mortality risks and medical burden among older elderly adults, highlighting that climate variability driven by ENSO could be a crucial determinant of healthy aging. |
| URI | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/655181 |
| ISSN | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158196 |
| Indexed | EI SCI(E) |
| Appears in Collections: | 公共卫生学院 经济学院 物理学院 |
