Title | Elimination of HIV transmission in Japanese MSM with combination interventions |
Authors | Wang, Yijing Tanuma, Junko Li, Jinghua Iwahashi, Kota Peng, Liping Chen, Chun Hao, Yuantao Gilmour, Stuart |
Affiliation | Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou, Peoples R China St Lukes Int Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Tokyo, Japan Natl Ctr Global Hlth & Med, AIDS Clin Ctr, Tokyo, Japan Community Ctr Akta, Tokyo, Japan Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Mech & Automat Engn, Hong Kong, Peoples R China Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Shenzhen Res Inst, Shenzhen, Peoples R China Peking Univ, Ctr Publ Hlth & Epidem Preparedness & Response, Beijing, Peoples R China Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sun Yat Sen Global Hlth Inst, Guangzhou, Peoples R China Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Hlth Informat Res, Guangzhou, Peoples R China Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, Peoples R China Sun Yat sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Rd, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, Peoples R China St Lukes Int Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Omura Susumu & Mieko Mem, 5th Floor,Chuo 7-6-2, Tokyo, 1040045, Japan |
Keywords | ACTIVE ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY PREEXPOSURE PROPHYLAXIS MORTALITY MEN SEX PREVENTION INFECTION BEHAVIOR |
Issue Date | Jun-2022 |
Publisher | LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-WESTERN PACIFIC |
Abstract | Background Japan has a concentrated HIV epidemic, with the majority of transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aimed to explore the effect of behavioral and biomedical interventions on the HIV epidemic and forecast the time required to eliminate HIV transmission among Japanese MSM. Methods A deterministic compartmental model was built to estimate and forecast the HIV epidemic among Japanese MSM from 2010 to 2050. Elimination of HIV transmission among MSM was defined as incidence less than 1/ 1000 person-years. The time required for eliminating HIV transmission under different scenarios was calculated. Findings Under the current policies, HIV transmission cannot be eliminated by 2050. Both behavioral and biomedical interventions can achieve elimination of HIV among MSM by 2050 with annual number of sexual partners among high-risk MSM less than 9, or with condom use rate above 65%, or with testing and treatment rate above 80%, or with more than 10% PrEP coverage rate. Under comprehensive interventions, HIV elimination will be achieved in 2032, 2025 and 2024 using weak, moderate and strong intervention combinations, respectively. Interpretation Both behavioural and biomedical interventions can achieve elimination of HIV among MSM by 2050, but comprehensive interventions can accelerate the realization of this goal with higher feasibility. Copyright (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
URI | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/647252 |
DOI | 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100467 |
Indexed | SCI(E) SSCI |
Appears in Collections: | 待认领 |