| Title | The general equilibrium impacts of carbon tax policy in China: A multi-model comparison |
| Authors | Cao, Jing Dai, Hancheng Li, Shantong Guo, Chaoyi Ho, Mun Cai, Wenjia He, Jianwu Huang, Hai Li, Jifeng Liu, Yu Qian, Haoqi Wang, Can Wu, Libo Zhang, Xiliang |
| Affiliation | Tsinghua Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China Peking Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China Dev Res Ctr State Council, Beijing, Peoples R China Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC USA Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Minist Educ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Policy & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China Fudan Univ, Inst Global Publ Policy, Shanghai, Peoples R China Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China Fudan Univ, Sch Econ, Shanghai, Peoples R China Tsinghua Univ, Inst Energy Environm & Econ 3E, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China Peking Univ, Beijing, Peoples R China Tsinghua Univ, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| Keywords | EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME ECONOMIC-IMPACT TOP-DOWN ENERGY CLIMATE SYSTEM MARKET |
| Issue Date | Jul-2021 |
| Publisher | ENERGY ECONOMICS |
| Abstract | We conduct a multi-model comparison of a carbon tax policy in China to examine how different models simulate the impacts in both near-term 2020, medium-term 2030, and distant future 2050. Though Top-down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been applied frequently on climate or other environmental/energy pol-icies to assess emission reduction, energy use and economy-wide general equilibrium outcomes in China, the re-sults often vary greatly across models, making it challenging to derive policies. We compare 8 China CGE models with different characteristics to examine how they estimate the effects of a plausible range of carbon tax scenar-ios - low, medium and high carbon taxes.. To make them comparable we impose the same population growth, the same GDP growth path and world energy price shocks. We find that the 2030 NDC target for China are easily met in all models, but the 2060 carbon neutrality goal cannot be achieved even with our highest carbon tax rates. Through this carbon tax comparison, we find all 8 CGE models differ substantially in terms of impacts on the macroeconomy, aggregate prices, energy use and carbon reductions, as well as industry level output and price effects. We discuss the reasons for the divergent simulation results including differences in model structure, sub-stitution parameters, baseline renewable penetration and methods of revenue recycling. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| URI | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/618205 |
| ISSN | 0140-9883 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105284 |
| Indexed | SSCI |
| Appears in Collections: | 环境科学与工程学院 |
