| Title | A novel nomogram to predict all-cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with heart failure |
| Authors | Yang, Mengxi Tao, Liyuan An, Hui Liu, Gang Tu, Qiang Zhang, Hu Qin, Li Xiao, Zhu Wang, Yu Fan, Jiaxai Feng, Dongping Liang, Yan Ren, Jingyi |
| Affiliation | China Japan Friendship Hosp, Dept Cardiol, 2 Yinghua Dongjie, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China Peking Univ, Hosp 3, Res Ctr Clin Epidemiol, Beijing, Peoples R China Hebei Gen Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China Peking Univ, Peoples Hosp, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Beijing, Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Genet & Dev Biol, State Key Lab Mol & Dev Biol, Beijing, Peoples R China Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China Peking Univ, Peoples Hosp, Dept Lab Med, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| Keywords | MORTALITY ANEMIA HOSPITALIZATION STROKE IMPACT POPULATION PREVALENCE PREVENTION MANAGEMENT MORBIDITY |
| Issue Date | Apr-2020 |
| Publisher | ESC HEART FAILURE |
| Abstract | Aims Elderly patients with heart failure (HF) are associated with frequent all-cause readmission or death. The present study sought to develop an accurate and easy-to-use model to predict all-cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with HF. Methods and results This was a prospective cohort study in patients with HF aged 65 or older. Demographic, co-morbidity, laboratory, and medication data were collected. A Cox regression model was used to identify factors for the prediction of readmission or death at 30 days and 1 year. A nomogram was developed with bootstrap validation. Of the included 854 patients, the cumulative all-cause readmission and mortality rates were 10.5% and 11.6% at 30 days and 34.9% and 19.7% at 1 year, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with both 30 day and 1 year readmission or death were older age, stroke, diastolic blood pressure < 60 mmHg, body mass index <= 18.5 kg/m(2), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, and BNP > 400 pg/mL (all P < 0.05). Anaemia, abnormal neutrophils, and admission without angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers were the specific independent risk factors of 30 day all-cause readmission or death (all P < 0.05), whereas serum sodium <= 140 mmol/L and admission without beta-blockers were the specific independent risk factors of 1 year all-cause readmission or death (all P < 0.05). The C-index of the 30 day and 1 year diagnosis prediction model was 0.778 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.693-0.862] and 0.738 (95% CI 0.640-0.836), respectively. Conclusions We developed accurate and easy-to-use nomograms to predict all-cause readmission or death in Chinese elderly patients with HF. The nomograms will assist in reducing the all-cause readmission and mortality rates. |
| URI | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/606686 |
| ISSN | 2055-5822 |
| DOI | 10.1002/ehf2.12703 |
| Indexed | SCI(E) |
| Appears in Collections: | 第三医院 人民医院 |
