| Title | Controls of Spring Persistence Barrier Strength in Different ENSO Regimes and Implications for 21st Century Changes |
| Authors | Jin, Yishuai Lu, Zhengyao Liu, Zhengyu |
| Affiliation | Peking Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Open Studio Ocean Climate Isotope Modeling, Qingdao, Peoples R China Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Lund, Sweden Ohio State Univ, Dept Geog, Atmospher Sci Program, Columbus, OH 43210 USA |
| Keywords | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE EL-NINO TROPICAL PACIFIC PREDICTION SKILL PHASE-LOCKING ANNUAL CYCLE OCEAN PREDICTABILITY MODEL ANOMALIES |
| Issue Date | 16-Jun-2020 |
| Publisher | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
| Abstract | This paper investigates potential factors that control the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Spring Persistence Barrier (SPB) strength in two different ENSO regimes and apply it to explain the ENSO SPB strength modulation after the 21st century. In a damped, noise-driven model, the theoretical solution of SPB strength illustrates that a weaker ENSO growth rate strengthens SPB. In the self-sustained regime, as in the Cane-Zebiak model (chaotic system), the strengthened thermodynamic damping and weakened thermocline positive feedback lead to a more negative ENSO growth rate and, in turn, a stronger SPB. Therefore, in both ENSO regimes, a weaker ENSO growth rate intensifies the SPB. The application of the theory to the real world suggests that a more negative ENSO growth rate, corresponding to a more damped feedback system, is responsible for the stronger SPB in recent decades than in 1980-2000. |
| URI | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/590115 |
| ISSN | 0094-8276 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2020GL088010 |
| Indexed | SCI(E) |
| Appears in Collections: | 物理学院 |
