Title | Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region a model intercomparison |
Authors | Andresen, Christian G. Lawrence, David Wilson, Cathy J. McGuire, A. David Koven, Charles Schaefer, Kevin Jafarov, Elchin Peng, Shushi Chen, Xiaodong Gouttevin, Isabelle Burke, Eleanor J. Chadburn, Sarah Ji, Duoying Chen, Guangsheng Hayes, Daniel Zhang, Wenxin |
Affiliation | Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA Los Alamos Natl Lab, Earth & Environm Sci Div, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA USA Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA Univ Grenoble Alps, LGGE, Grenoble, France CNRS, Grenoble, France Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA IRSTEA HHLY, Lyon, France IRSTEA ETNA, Grenoble, France Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Environm Sci Div, Oak Ridge, TN USA Univ Maine, Sch Forest Resources, Orono, ME 04469 USA Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Lund, Sweden Univ Copenhagen, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, Ctr Permafrost CENPERM, Copenhagen, Denmark Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Atmospher Sci & Global Change Div, Richland, WA 99352 USA |
Keywords | ICE-WEDGE DEGRADATION LAND-SURFACE MODEL THERMAL DYNAMICS POLYGONAL TUNDRA FROZEN SOIL CARBON WATER CO2 FLUXES SYSTEM |
Issue Date | 5-Feb-2020 |
Publisher | CRYOSPHERE |
Abstract | This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. |
URI | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11897/586049 |
ISSN | 1994-0416 |
DOI | 10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 |
Indexed | SCI(E) Scopus |
Appears in Collections: | 城市与环境学院 |