Context Effects in the Judgment o Visual Relative-Frequency: Trial-by-Trial Adaptation and Non-linear Sequential Effect

Abstract

Humans' judgment of relative-frequency, similar to their use of probability in decision-making, is often distorted as an inverted-S-shape curve-small relative-frequency overestimated and large relative-frequency underestimated. Here we investigated how the judgment of relative-frequency, despite its natural reference points (0 and 1) and stereotyped distortion, may adapt to the environmental statistics. The task was to report the relative-frequency of black (or white) dots in a visual array of black and white dots. We found that participants' judgment was distorted in the typical inverted-S-shape, but the distortion curve was influenced by both the central tendency and spread of the distribution of objective relative-frequencies: the lower the central tendency, the higher the overall judgment (contrast effect); the higher the spread, the more curved the inverted-S-shape (curvature effect). These context effects are in the spirit of efficient coding but opposite to what would be predicted by Bayesian inference. We further modeled the context effects on the level of individual trials, through which we found not only a trial-by-trial adaptation, but also the non-linear sequential effects that were recently reported mainly in circularly distributed visual stimuli.